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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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NPR has published analysis of swing state polling averages, finding that Vice President Kamala Harris has now taken "a consistent though narrow lead" in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
- NPR notes that Trump holds a slight lead in Georgia, with North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona all within a 1-point margin.
- Harris' polling has received a slight bump from the Democratic National Convention. The New York Times national polling average shows Harris now leads Trump by three points nationally. In other polling averages, including 538, DDHQ, and Nate Silver's - Harris leads in national polling by around four points.
- Harris' national polling lead is expected to increase by a further one or two points in the coming days, in line with a traditional convention bounce. Historical data suggests that convention bounce should recede ahead of Election Day.
- Harris will soon be forced to go off-script for the first time, adding additional variables to her tightly choreographed campaign. Harris told reporters she wanted to sit down for an unscripted interview, “before the end of the month” - that self-imposed deadline is four days from now.
- On September 10, Harris and Trump are scheduled to appear on ABC News for the first presidential debate of the revised match-up. There has been some speculation that Trump could skip the debate but considering Harris’ momentum, the debate is likely to go ahead.
Figure 1: Electoral College Rating Changes Since August 5
Source: NPR
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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