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Harris-Trump Debate Does Little To Move The Dial On Presidential Race

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The first presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump appears to have had limited impact on the race for the White House.

  • An ABC News/Ipsos survey found that the debate firmed up support for Harris but has done little to, "move the needle in terms of trust on the issues, ratings of the candidates' personal attributes or vote preferences in the 2024 election." ABC adds: "The benefit for Harris occurred almost exclusively in her base, potentially helping her turnout efforts."
  • The New York Times national polling average remains static, with Harris maintaining a 49% to 47% edge in the popular vote. Nate Cohen at the NYT notes: "It’s still too soon to judge the fallout from the presidential debate, but the polls suggest that Kamala Harris might be poised to gain."
  • Analyst Nate Silver notes that the implied probability of Harris winning the popular vote but losing the White House has ticked up to nearly 25%, suggesting that Harris' relative weakness in swing states may be expanding Trump's electoral college advantage. In short, Harris may have to win the popular vote by more than three percentage points.
  • Betting and prediction markets continue to project a 50-50 race, judging the debate to have done enough to overturn a slight pre-debate advantage for Trump.
  • 538's forecast model is the most bullish for Harris, giving the Democrat an implied probability of 60% of winning in November. 538 notes that post-debate polls have hinted at a slight bump for Harris.
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The first presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump appears to have had limited impact on the race for the White House.

  • An ABC News/Ipsos survey found that the debate firmed up support for Harris but has done little to, "move the needle in terms of trust on the issues, ratings of the candidates' personal attributes or vote preferences in the 2024 election." ABC adds: "The benefit for Harris occurred almost exclusively in her base, potentially helping her turnout efforts."
  • The New York Times national polling average remains static, with Harris maintaining a 49% to 47% edge in the popular vote. Nate Cohen at the NYT notes: "It’s still too soon to judge the fallout from the presidential debate, but the polls suggest that Kamala Harris might be poised to gain."
  • Analyst Nate Silver notes that the implied probability of Harris winning the popular vote but losing the White House has ticked up to nearly 25%, suggesting that Harris' relative weakness in swing states may be expanding Trump's electoral college advantage. In short, Harris may have to win the popular vote by more than three percentage points.
  • Betting and prediction markets continue to project a 50-50 race, judging the debate to have done enough to overturn a slight pre-debate advantage for Trump.
  • 538's forecast model is the most bullish for Harris, giving the Democrat an implied probability of 60% of winning in November. 538 notes that post-debate polls have hinted at a slight bump for Harris.