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INDIA: Having gapped sharply higher at the open, USD/INR retraced the move ahead
of the close, prompting the pair to finish lower at 71.7063. Echoing similar
moves in other risk assets, INR recovered as markets contemplated the Iranian
missile strike, judging that Iran's attack will have little far-reaching impact
on relations or tension in the region. The pullback in the oil price also lent
some support, allowing INR to regain lost ground.
-Going forward, the INR price will remain tied to the geopolitical tension in
the middle-east with focus turning to Trump's speech at 1600GMT/1100ET.
-Most analysts still see the currency retaining the 70.00-73.00 range going
forward, although a deterioration in middle-eastern tensions could see this
upper bound tested, but RBI management should smooth any outsized spikes in
volatility. The leaves the firmest support at the intersection of the 50- and
100-dmas (71.3373 and 71.3185 respectively) and resistance left at the 2020 high