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Hawk-Dove Matrix Reflects Limited Appetite For Future Hikes (1/2)

FED

Per our FedSpeak comms update: with the FOMC almost certain to hold rates steady at the Oct 31-Nov 1 meeting, the Committee’s deliberation is shaping up to revolve over the lagged impact of previous tightening and the impact of higher Treasury yields.

  • Our updated Hawk-Dove matrix is below - movements since the September FOMC have been subtle, reflecting the likelihood that the tightening cycle is at or near an end, but with cuts not on the agenda now either.
  • Multiple FOMC participants have, since the September meeting, indicated that rates have likely peaked, or that rates may be at or very near where they need to be to get inflation down to 2%: this includes Barr, Bostic, Daly, Goolsbee, Harker, Jefferson, and Williams.
  • Others – including Barkin, Bowman, Collins, Kashkari, Logan, Mester, Chair Powell, and Waller – have suggested to varying degrees that rates may have to rise further.
  • The other four not included above didn’t speak on current monetary policy since the September FOMC – Cook, Kugler, Schmid, and the interim St Louis Fed president.

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