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Hawkish RBA Hold Tips EUR/AUD to Fresh 5y Low

FOREX
  • The RBA provided a hawkish surprise in its monetary policy decision overnight. Despite keeping the cash rate unchanged this time, the Board dropped the reference to "patience" in its interest rate outlook, setting the scene for future tightening.
  • The RBA's hawkish policy hold overnight continues to push AUD to the top of the G10 table, with AUD gains most notable against NOK, JPY and EUR so far today. The move puts EUR/AUD through horizontal support drawn off the mid-2017 lows at 1.4424, with prices now at the lowest levels since late April 2017 - narrowing the proximity with the 2017 cyclical low of 1.3627.
  • The greenback is on the backfoot, partially reversing several sessions of strength after the USD Index recovered off last week's lows. This keeps the DXY either side of the 99.00 handle, as markets watch the stabilisation of pricing for Fed policy ahead of the next FOMC meeting in a month's time.
  • PMI data revisions across the Eurozone this morning left little mark on markets, better final readings for Germany were countered by lower Spanish releases.
  • US and Canadian trade balance numbers for February are the calendar highlights, with some attention also likely paid to speeches from Fed's Brainard on inflation, Daly & Williams on the economy.
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