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Hawkish SONIA Adjustments On U.S. Data, ~30bp OF '24 BoE Cuts Priced

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HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

SONIA markets join the hawkish adjustments driven by the U.S. PMI data, leaving 30bp of ’24 BoE cuts priced vs. a little over 50bp heading into yesterday’s UK CPI release, as we move back towards April’s hawkish extremes in BoE-dated OIS.

  • A full 25bp cut is no longer fully discounted through the November MPC (~23bp of easing showing through that juncture).
  • SONIA futures are 0.25 to 9.0 lower through the blues. SFIZ4 breaches its April low.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.198-0.2
Aug-245.123-7.7
Sep-245.063-13.7
Nov-244.968-23.2
Dec-244.902-29.8
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SONIA markets join the hawkish adjustments driven by the U.S. PMI data, leaving 30bp of ’24 BoE cuts priced vs. a little over 50bp heading into yesterday’s UK CPI release, as we move back towards April’s hawkish extremes in BoE-dated OIS.

  • A full 25bp cut is no longer fully discounted through the November MPC (~23bp of easing showing through that juncture).
  • SONIA futures are 0.25 to 9.0 lower through the blues. SFIZ4 breaches its April low.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.198-0.2
Aug-245.123-7.7
Sep-245.063-13.7
Nov-244.968-23.2
Dec-244.902-29.8