NBP: Hawkish Tweaks To Statement May Be Reflected In Governor's Rhetoric (1/2)

Most analysts point to hawkish tweaks in the statement from yesterday's MPC meeting, which resulted in another widely expected on-hold decision. These adjustments are expected to be reflected in the tone of Governor Adam Glapinski's press conference scheduled to begin at 14:00GMT/15:00CET.

• Bank Pocztowy write that the latest statement did not signal any breakthrough. In their view, it is difficult to assess the reasons behind the adjustments to CPI forecasts at this point. However, they expect the MPC to start thinking about rate cuts in the coming months, which could result in the first move in rates in July.
• BGK note that changes in the statement were rather hawkish. The MPC's focus shifted to rising domestic demand amid continued economic recovery, which pushes energy price increases to the background. In their view, the details of the new projection confirm this hypothesis. They expect a hawkish presser today and do not expect Governor Glapinski to hint at any specific timing for cutting rates.
• BOS Bank write that the statement did not feature any significant tweaks relative to the previous document. They think that the assumption of a withdrawal of the electricity price cap in 3Q25 was maintained and implied that inflation would stay elevated. BOS Bank expect the Governor to mention this argument as a reason to keep interest rates on hold at least through 2Q25. They expect the NBP to cut the reference rate by 25bp in July, September and November to 5.0%.
• Goldman Sachs write that the MPC statement contained cautious guidance that was broadly unchanged, with some exceptions. In their view, the MPC's hierarchy of risks to the inflation outlook may have changed, with more emphasis on inflationary pressures that stem from a stronger domestic economic recovery. They expect a recommencement of monetary easing in 3Q25 (after the presidential elections).
• ING see the statement as an indication that today's presser will be maintained in a hawkish tone. They note that the debate within the Council may have been heated, given that the rate decision was announced relatively late (1h 45m later than in February, 42m later than in January), which suggests a growing dissonance in the opinions of panel members. ING flag several hawkish tweaks to the statement and note that Governor Glapinski will probably strongly emphasise inflationary risks, such as administered price hikes, including the unrealistic scenario assuming a jump in energy prices in 4Q25. He may also pay much attention to robust wage growth and sticky services price inflation, while shrugging off disinflationary factors (e.g. PLN strength). In ING's view, the current level of interest rates is having a growing impact on the economy through the credit and exchange-rate channels. They see room for 50-100bp worth of rate cuts this year, with the NBP changing its stance only in 2H25.