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Hawks And Doves Agree...March Is Live

FED

The hawkish shift from the FOMC continued over the Dec-Jan intermeeting period, with participants spelling out expectations for rate hikes and balance sheet reduction in 2022.

  • At least 9 participants indicated March as a potential Fed funds “liftoff” date, ranging from the dovish to the hawkish end of the spectrum: Brainard, Daly, Evans, Harker, Barkin, Mester, Bostic, Waller, and Bullard. None pushed heavily against the prospect of a March hike.
  • Several participants have expressed a desire to have a faster pace of balance sheet runoff than in the previous cycle. This again includes perceived doves as well as hawks: Daly, Evans, Mester, Bostic, and Bullard. Consensus on the start of runoff is a little more mixed though.
  • As for Wednesday's decision, take note: The ranks of voters will be thinner than usual due to Board vacancies, with just 9: Powell, Brainard, Bowman, Waller, Williams, Mester, Bullard, George, Harker [expected to be voting in place of the Boston Interim President until a full-time replacement is made].



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