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Heading Into Fed Week With March Lift-Off, 4 Hikes In 2022

STIR
  • Today’s risk-off led rally in core rates has seen Fed Funds futures back to pricing 26bps for next week’s FOMC (Wed high 28bps) and 99bps following the Dec meeting (Wed high 108bps), near where they started the week.
  • All eyes are obviously on the Fed on Wed and what rates/balance sheet runoff guidance it gives, which could shape more meaningful changes to the current 4 hikes in 2022 having only just been fully priced as of this week.
  • Before then, the preliminary Markit PMIs for January on Monday could have an impact at the margin.
  • Further out, Eurodollars are pricing in a further ~2.5 hikes in 2023.
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