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Heading into today's Fed rate decision,......>

DOLLAR: Heading into today's Fed rate decision, the USD index remains above the
200-dma and, while little is expected from the Fed today (no press conference,
no new projections), MNI's PINCH model (as of yesterday) still attributes a 10%
probability of a rate hike. As a result, the USD may have to correct as those
positions are adjusted after what is expected to be an 'hawkish hold' - albeit
to a modest extent.
-According to MNI's fixed income team, focus remains on June as the next
opportune meeting for an FOMC rate hike, which is 100% priced in according to
MNI's model.
-MNI's FX Pi also sees the non-commercial positioning holding the highest USD
relative net position since May 2017, with markets dropping long exposure in
EUR, GBP and JPY in favour of USD, according to the most recent CoT report from
the CFTC.

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