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Heading Into Year End: Adieu 2022

US TSYS

Tsy futures hold weaker across the board, near midmorning lows in the last hour of trade for 2022. Yield curves running steeper as long end looks to extend lows following better than expected Chicago PMI data: 44.9 vs. 40.0 est (37.2 prior) spurred better selling in long end earlier. 30YY tapped 3.9854% high, 2s10s curve climbed to -52.612 high compared to -42.072 on Wednesday.

  • This month’s recovery broke a three-month streak of falls, yet the index remained contractive for a fourth consecutive month.
  • The majority of sub-indexes improved over the month, led by Order Backlogs and New Orders whilst upticks in Production and Supplier Deliveries were more muted. Inventories, Employment and Prices Paid all weakened and only Order Backlogs, Supplier Deliveries and Prices Paid were above 50.
  • Light holiday volumes (USH3<160k; TYH<600k) ahead the early close: FI/FX trading floor closes at 1300ET, cash Tsys close 1 hour later at 1400ET, while GLOBEX closes at 1700ET. Markets closed Monday. LINK
  • Aside from month/year end portfolio rebalancing, focus on next week's data: FOMC meeting minutes for December to be release Wednesday at 1400ET.

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