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Headline HICP Falls Below ECB's 2% Target

PORTUGAL

Portugal flash December inflation showed further softening in headline and core components on an annual and monthly basis, with headline Y/Y HICP falling to the lowest level since October 2021.

  • Core CPI (ex-energy/unprocessed foods) fell by an unrounded -0.23% M/M (vs -0.22% prior), with the annual rate slowing to +2.57% Y/Y (vs +2.86% prior).
  • The press release highlights food price disinflation as a key driver of the deceleration, with unprocessed food falling -0.93% M/M and processed goods falling -0.26% M/M.
  • Energy base effects showed signs of wearing off, with annual energy inflation printing at -10.45% (vs -12.39% prior). However, prices still fell -2.17% on the month (vs -1.89% in November).
  • Headline CPI was an unrounded +1.37% (vs +1.54% prior) and -0.46% M/M (vs -0.31% prior) while headline HICP came in at -0.8% M/M (vs -1.0% prior) and +1.8% Y/Y (vs +2.2% prior) - below the ECB's 2% target.

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