Headline HICP Set To Print Below Expectations, Core Risks To Downside

With the German, Spanish, Belgian, and Irish flash November HICP figures in (around 44% of the EZ weighting combined), MNI's current estimate for Eurozone headline HICP (out Thursday at 1000UK) is 2.4-2.5% Y/Y, versus the 2.7% consensus coming into today (and 2.9% October). That's largely based on the softer-than-expected German and Spanish prints.

• The consensus estimate for the core HICP reading of 3.9% Y/Y looks to have primarily downside risks attached to it given in-line/softer details in today's prints, though we will have a much better idea after the Dutch and French reports early Thursday.

A couple of sell-side analysts have adjusted their estimates on the back of today's data:

• Barclays sees headline Eurozone HICP at 2.7% Y/Y (unch from pre-data), and core at 3.9% (0.1pp above their previous forecast). The latter incorporates their estimates of German core HICP at 3.6% Y/Y (was 4.2% Oct), with Spanish at 3.3% Y/Y (was 3.8% Oct). Note that going into today Barclays had forecast 0.94% Y/Y HICP for Italy (below BBG consensus of 1.1%), and 4.2% for France (above consensus of 4.1%).
• Goldman Sachs meanwhile have downwardly revised their Euro HICP forecast to 2.50% Y/Y (was 2.64%) and core to 3.85% (was 3.93%). Note they forecast 0.9% Y/Y HICP for Italy, and 4.1% for France.