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Headline Inflation Expected to Cool Slightly to 25.0% y/y Tomorrow (0730BST/0830CET)

HUNGARY
  • Goldman Sachs expect inflation to decline to 24.7% y/y. Their forecast implies declining contributions from lower food and energy inflation, which they expect to have a more meaningful impact in lowering headline inflation in Q2 and Q3. Nevertheless, there is anecdotal evidence that after an extended period of HUF appreciation there may be a faster moderation in inflation.
  • UniCredit say inflation probably fell to 25.0% y/y, noting that momentum has accelerated recently in core services and goods. They expect disinflation to accelerate from June, with annual inflation dropping the most in August and September, when the NBH is likely to align the O/N deposit rate to the policy rate.
  • ING expect a drop to 24.8% y/y. Regarding CEE FX, they expect the current rally to start running out of steam, with EUR/HUF seen gravitating toward 375.
  • Note Cabinet Minister Gergely Gulyas told reporters last Thursday that this week Hungary will decide whether to extend food price caps beyond the end of the month. The decision will be influenced by tomorrow’s inflation data, the same day as the weekly cabinet meeting.
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