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Health Insurance Reset Should Have Smallest CPI Impact In Recent Years

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • The BLS now updates its CPI health insurance series every six months rather than annually, based on insurers’ earnings in April and October.
  • The April M/M will guide an average monthly increase through April-September, having increased an average 1.0% M/M through Oct-March.
  • The below analyst estimates range from 0-0.7% M/M over the next six months, implying a relatively small sequential change compared to the swing in Oct vs the -3.8% average decline seen through Oct’22-Sep’23.
  • With a rough weight of 0.07% in the core CPI basket and 2.2% in supercore CPI, the 1.0% M/M average increase through Oct’23-Mar’24 was worth 0.01pps to core and 0.02pps to supercore.
  • This update shouldn’t impact PCE inflation but surprises can still impact CPI.
  • GS: 0.0%, TD: 0.0%
  • BofA: 0.4%, Citi: 0.4%
  • Nomura: 0.5-0.7%

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