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Heath Acknowledges Marginal Good News Regarding Inflation

MEXICO
  • In a series of tweets, Banxico Deputy Governor, Jonathan Heath, indicated that the most recent bi-weekly core CPI data that dipped slightly was good news while making clear it may not be sufficient to see a full month on month reduction:
    • “The really good news is the (marginal) decrease in core inflation from 7.27% to 7.24%, the first reduction in a long time. However, it is not clear that it is enough for the May rate to end up below that of April.”
    • While Heath acknowledged that a downward trend in inflation has to start with lower data than the previous, the central banker believes it is unclear that this is the “beginning of such a long-awaited trajectory, or simply noise within what continues to be a trend upward.”
    • He remains very concerned regarding food prices.
  • The economy likely grew 1.0% in the first quarter of 2022 from three months earlier and 1.7% from a year earlier, according to estimates in a Bloomberg survey of final GDP figures. Data due at 1200BST/0700ET:
    • March Economic Activity IGAE MoM, est. 0.40%, prior 0.01%
    • March Economic Activity IGAE YoY, est. 0.90%, prior 2.45%
    • 1Q GDP SA QoQ, est. 1.0%, prior 0.9%
    • 1Q GDP Nominal YoY, prior 9.0%
    • 1Q GDP NSA YoY, est. 1.7%, prior 1.6%
  • Elsewhere at 1630BST/1130ET: Banxico to offer 20b pesos of Bondes F due in 308, 700, 1,064 and 1,792 days
  • Pemex to release April output, export data.
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  • In a series of tweets, Banxico Deputy Governor, Jonathan Heath, indicated that the most recent bi-weekly core CPI data that dipped slightly was good news while making clear it may not be sufficient to see a full month on month reduction:
    • “The really good news is the (marginal) decrease in core inflation from 7.27% to 7.24%, the first reduction in a long time. However, it is not clear that it is enough for the May rate to end up below that of April.”
    • While Heath acknowledged that a downward trend in inflation has to start with lower data than the previous, the central banker believes it is unclear that this is the “beginning of such a long-awaited trajectory, or simply noise within what continues to be a trend upward.”
    • He remains very concerned regarding food prices.
  • The economy likely grew 1.0% in the first quarter of 2022 from three months earlier and 1.7% from a year earlier, according to estimates in a Bloomberg survey of final GDP figures. Data due at 1200BST/0700ET:
    • March Economic Activity IGAE MoM, est. 0.40%, prior 0.01%
    • March Economic Activity IGAE YoY, est. 0.90%, prior 2.45%
    • 1Q GDP SA QoQ, est. 1.0%, prior 0.9%
    • 1Q GDP Nominal YoY, prior 9.0%
    • 1Q GDP NSA YoY, est. 1.7%, prior 1.6%
  • Elsewhere at 1630BST/1130ET: Banxico to offer 20b pesos of Bondes F due in 308, 700, 1,064 and 1,792 days
  • Pemex to release April output, export data.