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Heavy Crude Supply Could Tighten In USGC: Argus

OIL

Heavy sour crude supply to the USGC could tighten as major projects in Canada and Mexico draw supply away, Argus said.

  • Canada’s TMX pipeline expansion due online in Q2 will enable more Canadian crude to move to the USWC. Nevertheless, it could face further potential delays of up to two years.
  • Canadian crude-USGC flows in Jan-Oct 2023 were 275k b/d.
  • Moreover, the opening of Mexico’s 340k b/d Olmeca refinery should limit flows of Mexican grades.
  • Maya shipments could fall 58% to 250k b/d, if Olmeca were runs at full capacity, Argus estimates.
  • Offsetting some of the tightness is the return of Flows of Venezuela’s Merey crude, following sanction relief.
  • Imports from Venezuela were 166k b/d in October compared to 40k b/d in January, according to EIA data.
  • The higher supply from Venezuela has pushed Colombia’s Castilla crude to a $10.40/b discount vs Dated Brent, the widest in seven months.

Source: Argus

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