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US NATGAS: Henry Hub breaks below $4, for prompt April. Mixed fundamentals

US NATGAS
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Henry Hub April 25 broke below $4 to end yesterday’s trading and is currently at $3.982 mmcf going as low at $3.97 in overnight trading. Mixed signals on this morning’s fundamentals with both domestic demand and production dropping significantly.  This is despite cooler 15day weather forecasts across the Lower 48, data is subject to revision.  Production being more inelastic than demand, and with lower storage levels, there is a bear case that supply will revise higher and may outpace the forecasted increase in heating demand. 

  • Lower 48 natural gas estimated demand slips lower by 4.2 bcf/d to 75.8 bcfd, BNEF shows. NOAA average lower 48 temperatures forecast are lower than yesterday for the balance of March to at-or-below normal, GFS Operational 0z. The additional forecasted demand is seen mostly in the Midwest and Mountains EIA regions.
  • US LNG export terminal feedgas is down 130 mmcf d/d to 15.72 bcf, after settling near mtd highs of 15.85 bcf yesterday. On the day, Sabine Pass is down 133 mmcf to 4.6 bcfd, Calcasieu offsetting this drop and is up 145 mmcf to 1.74 bcf, Corpus Christi down 98 mmcf d/d, Plaquemines is also down 43 mmcfd to 1.94 bcfd after setting an all-time high yesterday of 1.98 bcf. Freeport also showing some d/d strength, up 59 mmcf to 1.96 bcf, which is still well below its observed max of nearly 2.2 bcfd.
  • US domestic natural gas production also taking a sharp dip lower and is down 2.63 bcf  d/d to 104.9 bcf/d today compared to an average of 107.7 bcf/d so far in March, according to BNEF.
  • Export flows to Mexico remain sluggish and are up just 0.02 bcf/d today estimated at 5.85 bcf/d, according to Bloomberg. This is down from mtd high of 6.9 bcfd, the 30-day average is 6.38 bcf
  • Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures volumes was mostly flat d/d, down 17k to 447k on Mar. 17.
    • Henry Hub APR 25 down 0.9% at $3.982/MMBtu
    • Henry Hub MAY 25 down 1% at $4.046/MMBtu
    • Henry Hub APR 26 down 0.5% at $3.992/MMBtu
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Henry Hub April 25 broke below $4 to end yesterday’s trading and is currently at $3.982 mmcf going as low at $3.97 in overnight trading. Mixed signals on this morning’s fundamentals with both domestic demand and production dropping significantly.  This is despite cooler 15day weather forecasts across the Lower 48, data is subject to revision.  Production being more inelastic than demand, and with lower storage levels, there is a bear case that supply will revise higher and may outpace the forecasted increase in heating demand. 

  • Lower 48 natural gas estimated demand slips lower by 4.2 bcf/d to 75.8 bcfd, BNEF shows. NOAA average lower 48 temperatures forecast are lower than yesterday for the balance of March to at-or-below normal, GFS Operational 0z. The additional forecasted demand is seen mostly in the Midwest and Mountains EIA regions.
  • US LNG export terminal feedgas is down 130 mmcf d/d to 15.72 bcf, after settling near mtd highs of 15.85 bcf yesterday. On the day, Sabine Pass is down 133 mmcf to 4.6 bcfd, Calcasieu offsetting this drop and is up 145 mmcf to 1.74 bcf, Corpus Christi down 98 mmcf d/d, Plaquemines is also down 43 mmcfd to 1.94 bcfd after setting an all-time high yesterday of 1.98 bcf. Freeport also showing some d/d strength, up 59 mmcf to 1.96 bcf, which is still well below its observed max of nearly 2.2 bcfd.
  • US domestic natural gas production also taking a sharp dip lower and is down 2.63 bcf  d/d to 104.9 bcf/d today compared to an average of 107.7 bcf/d so far in March, according to BNEF.
  • Export flows to Mexico remain sluggish and are up just 0.02 bcf/d today estimated at 5.85 bcf/d, according to Bloomberg. This is down from mtd high of 6.9 bcfd, the 30-day average is 6.38 bcf
  • Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures volumes was mostly flat d/d, down 17k to 447k on Mar. 17.
    • Henry Hub APR 25 down 0.9% at $3.982/MMBtu
    • Henry Hub MAY 25 down 1% at $4.046/MMBtu
    • Henry Hub APR 26 down 0.5% at $3.992/MMBtu