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NATGAS: Henry Hub Rallies on Cold Weather and LNG Demand

NATGAS
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The Henry Hub Feb 25 contract has jumped up towards Jan 25 levels seen last week, prior to the contract expiry on Friday, supported by the forecast for colder weather and strong LNG export demand.

  • US LNG export terminal feedgas is 14.33bcf/d today supported by the startup of Plaquemines LNG, Bloomberg shows. Plaquemines LNG feedgas is today at 0.51bcf/d but reached a high of 0.63bcf/d on Dec. 25.
  • Venture Global LNG said Dec. 26 that it has shipped its first commissioning cargo from the facility headed to Germany. EU LNG demand will likely be supported with the potential halt to Russian pipeline gas transit via Ukraine at year end.
  • Lower 48 natural gas demand is near normal at 85.6bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg but average lower 48 temperatures are expected to gradually fall during the coming two weeks. The NOAA 6-14 forecast shows below normal in the east but above normal in the west.
  • The EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending Dec. 20 showed a smaller than expected withdrawal of 93bcf. Total stocks are down to 3,529bcf but still above the previous five year average of 3,363bcf and 14bcf above levels seen a year ago.
  • US domestic natural gas production is estimated up at 106.5bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 105.2bcf/d so far in December.
  • Export flows to Mexico is 5.67bcf/d today after recovering from a low of 4.85bcf/d on Dec. 25, according to Bloomberg.
  • Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures volume was 503k on Dec. 27.
    • US Natgas FEB 25 up 11.1% at 3.76$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas MAR 25 up 6% at 3.15$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas JAN 26 up 1.8% at 4.65$/mmbtu
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The Henry Hub Feb 25 contract has jumped up towards Jan 25 levels seen last week, prior to the contract expiry on Friday, supported by the forecast for colder weather and strong LNG export demand.

  • US LNG export terminal feedgas is 14.33bcf/d today supported by the startup of Plaquemines LNG, Bloomberg shows. Plaquemines LNG feedgas is today at 0.51bcf/d but reached a high of 0.63bcf/d on Dec. 25.
  • Venture Global LNG said Dec. 26 that it has shipped its first commissioning cargo from the facility headed to Germany. EU LNG demand will likely be supported with the potential halt to Russian pipeline gas transit via Ukraine at year end.
  • Lower 48 natural gas demand is near normal at 85.6bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg but average lower 48 temperatures are expected to gradually fall during the coming two weeks. The NOAA 6-14 forecast shows below normal in the east but above normal in the west.
  • The EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending Dec. 20 showed a smaller than expected withdrawal of 93bcf. Total stocks are down to 3,529bcf but still above the previous five year average of 3,363bcf and 14bcf above levels seen a year ago.
  • US domestic natural gas production is estimated up at 106.5bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 105.2bcf/d so far in December.
  • Export flows to Mexico is 5.67bcf/d today after recovering from a low of 4.85bcf/d on Dec. 25, according to Bloomberg.
  • Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures volume was 503k on Dec. 27.
    • US Natgas FEB 25 up 11.1% at 3.76$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas MAR 25 up 6% at 3.15$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas JAN 26 up 1.8% at 4.65$/mmbtu