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HICP Confirmed at +6.9%, Services Driving Core HICP Uptick

EUROZONE DATA
MNI (London)

EUROZONE MAR FINAL HICP +0.9% M/M (=FLASH); FEB +_% M/M

EUROZONE MAR FINAL HICP +6.9% Y/Y (=FLASH); FEB +8.5% Y/Y

EUROZONE MAR FINAL CORE HICP +1.3%r M/M (FLASH +1.2%); +5.7% Y/Y (=FLASH); FEB +5.6% Y/Y

  • Eurozone HICP was confirmed at flash estimate levels of +0.9% m/m and +6.9% y/y in March (vs +8.5% y/y in February), with core HICP confirmed at a euro-era high of +5.7% y/y. Core HICP was revised up 0.1pp to rise +1.3% m/m.
  • Energy inflation cooled considerably (-0.9% y/y after +13.7% y/y in Feb), accounting for the bulk of downwards pressure to headline inflation in March. Non-energy industrial goods also eased, slowing by 0.2pp to +6.6% y/y.
  • Upwards pressure came from food/alcohol/tobacco, which quickened by 0.5pp to +15.5% y/y, whilst services inflation accelerated by 0.3pp to +5.1% y/y.
  • Despite cooling headline inflation, sticky core HICP remains a key concern for the ECB, after hotter services prices saw core edge up by 0.1pp in the March data. Looking forward, strong service activity flagged by recent PMI data looks set to continue in the near-term, adding to sticky service-inflation troubles.

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