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HICP due at 10:00GMT / 11:00CET

EUROZONE DATA
  • Just a reminder that the main event of the morning session will be the release of Eurozone HICP at 10:00GMT / 11:00CET.
  • The economist consensus is fairly well split with 87% of analysts expecting in the 8.4%Y/Y - 9.2%Y/Y range for headline HICP on the Bloomberg survey.
  • Expectations for core HICP are a bit less dispersed with most analysts looking for 5.0-5.3%Y/Y.
  • There are a couple of reasons for the big divergence in expectations ahead of HICP: the main one is that the index will be reweighted - and this will largely mean that we are likely to see higher weights for energy and food (in headline) and things like transportation in core.
  • There is also a lot more uncertainty over how Eurostat will estimate German HICP which makes up around a quarter of the EZ HICP print but has been delayed due to "technical errors".
  • Italian HICP will also be released at the same time.- Ahead of this release we have seen a big upsdie surprise from Spain, a small upside surprise from the Netherlands and an in line print from France. So the balance of risks for the number lies to a higher print as most analysts haven't updated their estimates following the Spanish release.
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