HICP Headline and Core In Line With Tracking Estimates

Eurozone flash inflation for February printed at +2.6% Y/Y (vs +2.5% cons;+2.8% prior) while core (ex-energy/food) was +3.1% Y/Y (vs 2.9% cons; +3.3%prior). Monthly NSA prints were 0.6% for headline and 0.7% for core.

• The unrounded prints were 2.58% Y/Y, 0.62% M/M for headline inflation, and 3.08% Y/Y for core.
• The national releases over the past two days have been come in firmer than expected for the core measure, driven by services stickiness. This has led analysts to increase their estimates for the core rate to 3.0-3.2% Y/Y, suggesting the figures out now were largely priced in.
• For the headline figure, the print was also in line with analyst tracking estimates, and the early consensus.
• We await the ECB's seasonally-adjusted series due out later today for a better indication of sequential momentum.
• Of the core components, services disinflated only slightly to +3.9% Y/Y (vs +4.0% prior) while non-energy industrial goods came in at +1.6% Y/Y (vs +2.0% prior). Monthly NSA rates were positive for both (0.8% for services, 0.3% for NEIG).
• Food, alcohol, and tobacco inflation was 4.0% Y/Y (vs 5.6% prior), with the disinflation trend continuing.
• At a country level, the February Y/Y prints were lower (or the same) in 16/20 countries than in January. On a monthly basis, no countries saw M/M NSA deflation.

Eurostat