ISRAEL
The Israeli Supreme Court has issued a ruling - backed unanimously in a 9-0 decision - that states "there is no longer any legal framework for the government to grant blanket exemptions from military service to ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, and further that the government cannot continue to instruct the IDF and Defense Ministry not to draft such men into IDF service."
- The decision risks exposing divisions within PM Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing coalition between his Likud party and the ultranationalist Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit on one side - advocating for ultra-Orthodox students to serve in the IDF - and ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) on the other demanding that Haredi students are exempted from military service.
- The court ruling does not specify yet how or at what pace it should be implemented. However, depending on the reaction of Shas and UTJ it could have major ramifications for gov't stability. The two ultra-Orthodox parties have historically been key pillars propping up Netanyahu during his long tenure(s) in gov't. Should both withdraw from the coalition it would be enough to deny the gov't a majority, either pushing it into running as a minority administration or risking a vote of no confidence and snap elections.
Chart 1. Knesset Seats following Nov 2022 Election
Source: knesset.gov.il, MNI. N.b. National Unity Party now holds 8 seats, with 4 MKs leaving to sit as New Hope party.
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