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High Frequency Economics' Jim.........>

US DATA REACT
US DATA REACT: High Frequency Economics' Jim O'Sullivan noted the ADP private
sector payrolls estimate out today "was +235K in Oct, above the 200K consensus;
we had 155K. Sep was revised to up +110K from +135K."
- He added that while the ADP was "above consensus expectations," it looked
"much weaker than consensus expectations for payrolls in the the BLS report on
Friday," which are for +301K for private payrolls and +310K for total payrolls.
- But he adds the "ADP is far from infallible for signaling the BLS data. The
BLS data were much weaker than suggested by ADP in Sep, and we expect the
opposite pattern for Oct, due in part to weather effects typically larger for
the BLS data than for the ADP data. Our forecast is still +310K in total
following -33K in Sep."

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