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Higher on the open

BUNDS
  • Bunds have moved around 40 ticks higher between 7:00BST / 8:00CET and now after remaining in a tight range through the overnight session. At around 137.00, this has moved them to their highest level since Wednesday and around 300 ticks above Friday's low.
  • The main thing to look out for on the calendar will be the German IFO this morning (at 9:00BST) following on from yesterday's disappointing flash PMIs.
  • The ECB's Bank Lending Survey also due for release at the same time.
  • Germany will hold an auction this morning for E4bln of the 1.30% Oct-27 Bobl (ISIN: DE0001141869).
  • The ECB's Centeno is due to speak this morning but is unlikely to discuss monetary policy ahead of the ECB meeting later this week. For the full MNI ECB Preview see here.
  • We expect the ECB deliver another 75bp hike at this week’s meeting. While President Lagarde may indicate that discussions on QT are advancing and that this would naturally follow the normalisation in policy rates, it seems premature at this stage for the ECB to unveil an explicit roadmap for shrinking the balance sheet. With no let-up in inflation surprises, policy rates still a long way off neutral (and further away from being restrictive), and the relatively low bar to ‘jumbo’ policy rate hikes following the September move, we expect the ECB to go again in December with a 75bp hike.
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