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Higher Prices from Refinery Works Creating Arbitrage Opportunities

OIL PRODUCTS

Higher oil product prices in Europe are creating arbitrage opportunities previously limited by the high transport costs due to tanker diversions around Africa, according to Clarksons Securities Inc.

  • Unplanned refinery outages in Europe are combining with seasonal maintenance to boost product prices including diesel.
  • Drone attacks on Russian refineries could also raise diesel prices and encourage supplies from Middle East and Asian refiners to Europe.
  • The cost of shipping fuels such as diesel, jet fuel and naphtha on long-range vessels is climbing according to Baltic Exchange data.
  • Tanker fees on the TC1 route for 75kmt CPP from Middle East Gulf to Japan rose to the highest since Feb. 5 to $83,000/day on Monday.
  • TC8 route fees for 65kmt CPP from Middle East to Europe rose to the highest since Feb. 12 at almost $75,000/day.
  • The European Gasoil-Brent crack spread has risen from a low of around 22$/bbl on Mar.6 up to a high of 26.7$/bbl yesterday.
    • Gasoil APR 24 down 0.3% at 853.75$/mt
    • ULSD APR 24 down 0.9% at 2.76$/gal
    • Gasoil APR 24-MAY 24 down 1$/mt at 14.75$/mt
    • Gasoil JUN 24-DEC 24 down 0.75$/mt at 35.5$/mt
    • EU Gasoil-Brent down 0.6$/bbl at 26.06$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.1$/bbl at 33.63$/bbl
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