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Higher Than Expected Weekly Claims Buoys Tsys Yet Again

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures extended highs early and held the range through much of the day (TYZ3 +19 at 108-26 vs. 108-30 high) after higher than expected Initial Jobless Claims (231k vs. 220k est, 218k prior revised) the highest since September 8, poking back above the 218k averaged in 2019, and Continuing Claims (1.865M vs. 1.843M est, 1.833m prior/rev) marking a new ytd high and indeed the highest since Nov’21.
  • Industrial production was softer than expected in October as it fell -0.6% M/M (cons -0.4) after a downward revised 0.1% (initial 0.3). The latest trends seen industrial production up 1.1% annualized on a 3M/3M basis and manufacturing -0.2% annualized. Capacity utilization meanwhile surprisingly fell to 78.9% (cons 79.4) from a downward revised 79.5 (initial 79.7%) for its lowest since June and before that Dec’22.
  • Fed speakers appeared more balanced on the session compared to slightly more hawkish tone earlier in the week. Cleveland Fed’s Mester (’24 voter retiring in June) says she needs to see more evidence inflation is on the way to 2% and that she’d be concerned if inflation progress stalls.
  • Mester hasn’t decided whether another rate hike is still needed (she said in opening remarks earlier today that it will depend on the data, having pre-payrolls and CPI thought we were within 1 hike of the peak for rates) with the debate now about how long to keep rates restrictive.
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