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Higher Yields For Longer

US EURODLR FUTURES
  • Eurodollars cheapen 1-2.5 ticks across the white and red packs before rallying by increasingly large amounts further out the curve but limited to 5-6bps.
  • As has been the case since last week's FOMC, the peak implied yield remains in the EDM3, currently at 5.395% (+1bp from Fri, -5bp from pre-payrolls Thu closes) before keeping to 33bps of cuts to end-2023.
  • The curve remains solidly inverted into 2024, with EDZ3/EDZ4 of -0.80 close to the lows seen post-FOMC after which the pace of cuts slows and then levels out completely at a rate 50bps higher than after the Sept FOMC despite today's rally.

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