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Highest Level Since Early March, Above 200-Day EMA, Rate Differentials Narrowing

AUDNZD

AUD/NZD has firmed on Thursday after New Zealand CPI for Q1 printed below market expectations and also below the RBNZ's forecast. The pair prints at $1.0880/90, its highest level since 3 March.

  • Rate differentials, observed via 2-Year Swaps, have narrowed to -137bps today. Early in the month cycle lows at -165bps were printed.
  • Technically we sit above the 200-Day EMA ($1.0871), a close above this level will open up $1.0970, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the Feb-Apr bear leg, and $1.1088 the 2023 high for bulls.
  • Bears look to break the 20-Day EMA ($1.0776) to turn the tide.

Fig1: AU NZ 2 Year Swap v AUD/NZD Daily Spot

Source: MNI/Bloomberg

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