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Free AccessHighlights of the OBR's analysis of today's......>
UK: Highlights of the OBR's analysis of today's public finance figures versus
its coronavirus scenario.
- "Borrowing in April was GBP4.5 billion lower than our scenario assumes.
Central government receipts explain the majority of the difference: they were
GBP3.1 billion higher than assumed."
- "The [accrual] outturn data are currently based on our reference scenario
profiles or other forecasts" due to lags with econ activity and cash payments.
- On cash receipts (relevant for gilt markets): "Receipts in April were down by
GBP25.8 billion (42 per cent) on last year. That represented a GBP3.5 billion
shortfall relative to our reference scenario. Shortfalls against the scenario
were recorded across all the larger tax heads: income tax, NICs, VAT and
corporation tax. This is likely to reflect liabilities having been hit more
quickly than our scenario assumes and more non-payment of past liabilities due
to cashflow issues for taxpayers."
- So taxes fell back quicker than the OBR had assumed - strengthening the
argument for front loaded gilt issuance.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.