Highlights of the OBR's analysis of today's......>

UK: Highlights of the OBR's analysis of today's public finance figures versus

its coronavirus scenario.

- "Borrowing in April was GBP4.5 billion lower than our scenario assumes.

Central government receipts explain the majority of the difference: they were

GBP3.1 billion higher than assumed."

- "The [accrual] outturn data are currently based on our reference scenario

profiles or other forecasts" due to lags with econ activity and cash payments.

- On cash receipts (relevant for gilt markets): "Receipts in April were down by

GBP25.8 billion (42 per cent) on last year. That represented a GBP3.5 billion

shortfall relative to our reference scenario. Shortfalls against the scenario

were recorded across all the larger tax heads: income tax, NICs, VAT and

corporation tax. This is likely to reflect liabilities having been hit more

quickly than our scenario assumes and more non-payment of past liabilities due

to cashflow issues for taxpayers."

- So taxes fell back quicker than the OBR had assumed - strengthening the

argument for front loaded gilt issuance.