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Hike Pricing Near Recent Lows With ISM Mfg Later

STIR FUTURES
  • Hikes implied by FOMC-dated Fed Funds for July sit within yesterday’s range at 68.5bps and remain near the low end of the post-FOMC range further out with 122bps for Sep and 174bps for Dec.
  • The drop is more pronounced further out, with the peak in rates now at 3.41% at the Mar’23 meeting (182bp of hikes), down from a high of 3.66% on Wed.
  • Similar relative story for ECB-dated OIS, with 29bps for the Jul 21 meeting and 145bps to year-end. Mixed Eurozone CPI with headline stronger but core softer than expected in the preliminary June release and manufacturing activity confirmed to have slowed in the final PMI with further downside risks implied by Sweden.

Cumulative hikes implied by FOMC-dated Fed Funds futuresSource: Bloomberg

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