Free Trial

Historically Tight Labour Market Despite Increased Supply

US DATA
  • Payrolls was particularly close to consensus at 236k (cons 230k) with a minimal two-month revision of -17k, with all of that small downside tweak coming on January’s still stellar 472k (initial 504k).
  • A 3-mth average of 345k and 6-mth average of 315k remains far stronger than long-term levels consistent with population growth, whilst in the household survey, employment roared back with 577k as it maintained recent volatility.
  • That pushed the u/e rate down to 3.50% (cons 3.6) although as noted it didn’t take that much from 3.57% prior. This u/e rate is only marginally off January’s 3.43% in what was the lowest level since 1969.
  • Impressively, this came despite the participation rate rising further to 62.6 (labour force increased another rapid 480k) for a new post-pandemic high (although still 0.5pts off pre-pandemic levels). Interestingly, it was led by non-prime cohorts returning whilst the prime-age participation rate consolidated last month’s increase pre-pandemic recent highs of 83.1%.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.