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H&M (HMBSS; NR, BBB) {HMB SS Equity} 1Q24 Earnings Call

CONSUMER CYCLICALS

Not much directly for credit, positive tone from mgmt heading into Q2, gross margin beat a positive for retailers given macro driven.

  • On sales; sees regional performance (Americas underperformance vs. eastern Europe) converging on improvements in the US. Re Germany which it flagged in Q4 as soft demand, it is now encouraged more with "consumer looking more activated".
  • On pricing; sees it lower by year end, particular focus in US pricing being more competitive (sales -7% this qtr) which it has started working on in Q1 and has seen positive reaction - sees that continuing in early part of Q2. Sees net prices lower at end of the year vs. start.
  • On margins; there is some read through for broader retailers given gross margin beat was driven by macro factors in large part, mgmt adding; "A year and a half ago we had very elevated levels of freight cost, we had raw material cost and a negative currency effect affecting us."
  • On guidance; H&M has a operating margin target of 10% for FY24 - some analyst are still voicing doubts on that after this morning - it says its happy with bottom line but needs to work on top line based on Q1 sales when asked about it. Consensus is currently at mid 8's for FY24.
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