Hochstein Arrives In Middle East For De-Escalation Talks

US President Joe Biden's Middle East envoy, Amos Hochstein, has reportedly arrived in Egypt for a series of talks aimed at dialling down tensions between Israel, Lebanese Hezbollah, and Iran.

• Barack Ravid at Axios reports that Hochstein is expected to travel from Cairo to Beirut today. It is unlikely that any representatives of Hezbollah will be included in the Beirut discussions.
• Ravid notes US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is, "scheduled to travel tomorrow night to the Middle East," but the trip, "isn't final because like everyone else Blinken is waiting to see if Iran attacks or not."
• White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters yesterday that the US agrees with the Israeli intelligence assessment that an Iranian attack on Israel could come “within days.”
• There is uncertainty over the scope of a potential Iranian attack. Some analysts have speculated that Tehran is trying to calibrate a response below a threshold that could risk a wider war with Israel.
• Laura Rozen at Just Security noted: “…it was unclear if the U.S. believed an Iranian attack was likely, or if it might be conducting some sort of psychological warfare, forcing Israel to brace for one without striking, yet, or possibly to advance Gaza ceasefire efforts.”
• US officials have expressed optimism that talks to finalise a Gaza ceasefire deal – likely to take place in Cairo or Doha on August 15 – will ahead despite a statement from Hamas saying they won’t attend.