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Hogan Polls Strongly But Unlikely To Make Maryland Senate Race Competitive


The first Emerson College poll since former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan entered the Maryland Senate race has found Hogan tied with Rep. David Trone (D) and with a seven-point lead in a hypothetical matchup against County Executive Angela Alsobrooks.

  • Hogan, a popular two-term governor of the state, entered the race last week, providing the GOP a major boost and the first credible chance of flipping a Congressional seat in decades. If Hogan could win the seat it would almost guarantee the GOP control of the Senate in 2025, considering the huge lead Republican Governor Jim Justice (R-WV) has in the race to replace Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) in West Virginia.
  • Despite the seemingly positive polling data for Hogan, Sabato’s Crystal Ball cautions: “In response to Hogan’s announcement, we downgraded our rating for Maryland from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic. Are Republicans favored now? No, not even close—Democrats are still strongly favored to hold this open seat. But are Hogan’s chances zero? We don’t think so. Simply put, despite the terrain of the state, Maryland is now more of a live contest in a way that it wasn’t at the start of the month.”

Figure 1: 2024 Maryland Senate Matchups

Source: Emerson College Polling

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