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Holding Below $1.08, Rate Differentials Tick Wider

AUDNZD

AUD/NZD is holding below the $1.08 handle with narrow ranges persisting in recent dealing, the pair sits ~1.5% off late July highs and last prints at $1.0775/80.

  • Rate differentials, observed via 2 Year Swaps, sit at -135bps. We had been as narrow as -80bps in mid June.
  • Bears look to break the low from 17 July ($1.0725), this opens years to date lows ($1.0560) and December 2022 lows ($1.0471).
  • The immediate focus for bulls is the 20-Day EMA ($1.0817), a break of the measure opens high from 25 July ($1.0919) and high from June 19 ($1.1056).
  • Looking ahead the data calendar is light in Australia and New Zealand next week, Q3 2-Year Inflation expectations from New Zealand provides the highlight.

Fig 1: AUD/NZD Daily Spot vs AU NZ 2 Year Swap

Source: MNI/Bloomberg

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