Free Trial

Holding Cheaper As Europe Settles In

US TSYS

Cash Tsys sit 4.5-5.5bp cheaper across the curve, with the 5- to 10-Year zone seeing the most weakness.

  • TYZ3 -0-10 at 105-22, 0-05 off the base of an 0-11 range.
  • Initial technical support in the contract comes in at 105-10+, the Oct 19 low.
  • As we have flagged elsewhere, the lack of an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza (aided by U.S. intervention) and the latest source report re: the BoJ were the likely drivers of the Asia-Pac cheapening.
  • Still, the space is off session lows/yield highs, with recent cycle extremes not challenged.
  • With the FOMC pre-meeting blackout period now underway FOMC-dated OIS show virtually 0 pricing re: a hike at the November gathering (after Fed chair Powell’s latest appearance removed residual pricing of any such step), while terminal policy rate pricing hovers 9.5bp above prevailing levels, peaking in Jan ’24. Beyond there, ~53.5bp of cuts show through September ’24.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.