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Holding Fire For Now Ahead Of FOMC

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes keep to 78bp for tomorrow’s decision.
  • Meetings further out hold onto yesterday’s gentle gains with 138bp for Sep and 181bp for the four meetings to Dec, with little impact from Walmart’s disappointing earnings after close or other developments including EU gas reduction plans coming so close to tomorrow’s decision.
  • The implied peak is still seen in Dec at 3.39% with 61bps of cuts to end-2023, where it’s broadly been since the Philly Fed and EA/US PMI misses last week, with further earnings plus housing data and activity/confidence indicators ahead.

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