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Holding Pattern Into NFPs

US TSYS

Tsys remain in a holding pattern ahead of the impending NFP print (see our full preview of that event here), consolidating the move off yesterday’s ULC/ISM prices paid-driven richest levels.

  • That leaves the major cash Tsys sitting 0.5-1.5bp cheaper, while TYU3 is 0-01+ softer on the day, hovering around the middle of its narrow 0-05 range.
  • FOMC-dated OIS remains shy of the recent hawkish extremes. ~7bp of tightening is priced in for this month’s meeting and a cumulative 17bp of tightening is priced through July. Beyond that, ~40bp of cuts are priced by the end of ’23.
  • Note that there is no Fedspeak scheduled before the blackout period goes into effect this weekend, with the recent dovish overtures from Governor (and Vice Chair-designate) Jefferson continuing to reverberate.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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