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Holding Solid Powell Rally

US EURODLR FUTURES
  • Eurodollars implied yields sit 1-1.5bps lower on the day in front two contracts with the rally increasing thereafter to as much as 8bps in the green pack with Powell finished speaking.
  • Peak yields remain seen in the EDM3 with inversion thereafter not wildly changed on the day: EDM3/Z3 -0.44, EDZ3/Z4 -1.26 near record lows and ED2/6 from a policy pivot perspective widening to -0.825 but still comfortably off mid-Nov lows closer to -1.00.
  • Heavy focus in Powell’s remarks on the risk management approach to monetary policy when waiting for actual evidence that inflation is coming down. My colleagues and I don’t want to overtighten because cutting rates is not something we want to do soon, so that’s why we’re slowing down the pace of hikes to try to find out way to what the right level is.

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