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Holds Above $1.2100. Month-End Approaching

EUR
MNI (London)
  • Recovery off last Wednesday's low of $1.2023 (pullback low off $1.2169), extended Friday to $1.2145 during the European morning.
  • NY's early enthusiasm quickly faded as UST yields edged higher and equities began to pare early gains on position adjustments into the weekend. EUR/USD dropped from its post 1600GMT fix high of $1.2140 to $1.2108, closing the week nudging up against $1.2120.
  • Early Asia saw rate mark a low of $1.2110 before it edged to a high of $1.2136 in early Tokyo, the move aided by the positive moves in AUD/USD and NZD/USD as they reacted to ratings reports. As momentum faded so EUR/USD dropped back to $1.2113 before it settled again around $1.2120 into Europe.
  • Germany Ifo 0900GMT provides domestic data interest. ECB Lagarde speaks 1345GMT.
  • US fiscal stimulus headlines, Fed speak (Fed Powell speaks Tue/Wed, Fed Brainard and Clarida speak Wednesday) and UST yields remain key market drivers.
  • Month-end approaching on Friday, possible we could see US corporate USD demand emerge ahead, with Friday's fixings could prove volatile.
  • Support $1.2110/00, $1.2085/70, stronger into $1.2050 then $1.2023. Resistance $1.2135/45, $1.2152/55 55-dma/50-dma respectively ahead of $1.2169 and stronger into $1.2190/1.2200.
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD is holding onto Friday's gains having cleared resistance at 1.2110, Feb 17 high. Key resistance is located at 1.2169, Feb 16 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the recovery from the Feb 5 low and open 1.2190 initially, Jan 22 high. Importantly too, a break higher would negate the bearish shooting candle pattern from Feb 16. The key S/T support is at 1.2023. A break would be bearish and expose 1.1952, Feb 5 low.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

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