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Holds Below $1.21 but Retains a Buoyant Feel

EUR
MNI (London)
  • EUR/USD extended its recent recovery to $1.2117 in Asian trade Monday (thin trade noted due to Australian and NZ holidays) before retreating through the European morning and into NY to $1.2061.
  • Rate recovered through the 1600BST fix to $1.2094, closing at $1.2086.
  • USD/JPY demand in Tokyo led a recovery in the USD which pressed EUR/USD down to $1.2065 before edging back to $1.2075 as USD/JPY pared some of its gains post BOJ.
  • Support $1.2065/61, $1.2056/41(50%-61.8% $1.1994-1.2117) , break here to open a deeper pullback toward $1.2025/20($1.2023 76.4%).
  • Resistance $1.2090, $1.2094-1.2104(61.8%-76.4% $1.2117-1.2061), break here exposes again Monday's $1.2117 high, ahead of $1.2125.
  • ECB de Cos speaks at 1000GMT and 1500GMT.
  • US Redbook retail sales 1255GMT, Conference Board confidence 1400GMT.
  • Focus on Wednesday's FOMC. Month-end approaching with models making preliminary predictions for USD sales to be seen at Friday's fixes. US corporate USD demand could emerge Wednesday for month-end value.
  • MNI Techs: Recent gains in EURUSD resulted in a break of 1.2080, Apr 20 high, negating a bearish pattern on Apr 20 - a gravestone doji. Instead, the climb reinstates a bullish outlook. A key short-term hurdle for bulls however remains intact. 1.2116 is a bear channel top drawn off the Jan 6 high. A clear break of the channel resistance would be bullish and signal scope for an extension towards 1.2184, Feb 26 high. Support is at 1.1994, Apr 22 low.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

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