MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Oil Weakness Tests WTI Support

MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – Commodity Weakness Tests WTI Support

• The E-mini S&P returned lower early Wednesday on the back of poor after-market earnings, pressuring the Jul 19 lows at 5542.00. Any renewed weakness through here would challenge the 50-day EMA and key support of 5501.50. A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact, despite the pullback in prices into the Friday close. Prices recovered well across the Monday and Tuesday sessions, however the move lower last week undermines the bullish theme somewhat, with price having tested the bear trigger at 4860.00.
• The impulsive rally in USDCAD persists, with the pair showing above 1.3792 resistance this week. Further gains target the 1.0% 10-dma envelope at 1.3845 initially ahead of the more important level of 1.3846 - the Apr 16 high and bull trigger. The sharp sell-off in EURJPY persists, with the snap of the 170.00 mark opening the next leg lower in the cross. The clear break of this line highlights potential for a stronger reversal. EURGBP faded moderately yesterday. A bear cycle remains intact and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness resulted in a print below key support at 0.8397, the Jun 14 low and a bear trigger.
• Weakness through Tuesday and the broad commodity sell-off resulted in a new low for WTI futures at $76.40, breaking the Monday low in the process. Vol band based support undercuts from here at 76.52, ahead of key support at the Jun 4 low of 72.23. Gold prices faded across the second half of last week, resulting in new pullback lows of $2383.99 on Monday. Nonetheless, the broader gains last week reinforce current conditions, and keep the M/T trend pointed higher.
• Bund futures saw support across Tuesday trade, rallying well off the 50-day EMA to secure a strong close. That’s filtered through into Wednesday morning, with resistance at 132.66 - the Jul 17 high in focus. Gilt futures traded higher into the Tuesday close, but were unable to stage a rally toward the better levels of last week, keeping price below former resistance at 98.24, the Jun 28 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Fades Off Highs, But Support Further Out              

• RES 4: 1.1055 1.236 projection of the Apr 16 - Jun 4 - 26 price swing   
• RES 3: 1.0981 High Mar 3 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 1.0964 High Mar 13
• RES 1: 1.0948 High Jul 17
• PRICE: 1.0845 @ 08:12 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 1.0845/42 20-day EMA / Low Jul 24
• SUP 2: 1.0736 Low Jul 3
• SUP 3: 1.0666 Low Jun 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0650 Low May 1

The bull cycle in EURUSD has faded over the first two sessions of the week, with prices returning lower in a corrective pullback. This keeps key short-term resistance at 1.0964, the Mar 13 high, intact for now ahead of a key short-term resistance at 1.0981, the Mar 8 high. On the downside, firm short-term support lies at 1.0845, the 20-day EMA - pierced, but not yet broken on this week’s weakness. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Condition Holds, Despite Fade Off Highs           

• RES 4: 1.3193 2.236 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing     
• RES 3: 1.3142 High Jul 14 ‘23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3094 Bull channel top drawn from the Oct 4 ‘23 low
• RES 1: 1.3044 High Jul 17
• PRICE: 1.2901 @ 08:18 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 1.2882 Low Jul 24  
• SUP 2: 1.2860/1.2773 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2613 Low Jun 27
• SUP 4: 1.2584 Low May 15   

GBPUSD remains in a bull-mode condition despite the dip back below 1.30. Gains posted mid-last week again confirm a resumption of the current bull phase and the extension higher highlights a stronger medium-term bullish condition. Price had cleared the 1.3000 handle, signalling scope for an extension towards 1.3094, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 4 low of last year. Firm short-term support is seen below at 1.2860/1.2773, the 20- and 50-day EMA respectively. The bullish picture worsens below this mark.      

EURGBP TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows                            

• RES 4: 0.8586 76.4% retracement of the Apr 23 - Jun 14 bear leg  
• RES 3: 0.8568 High May 20
• RES 2: 0.8467/99 50-day EMA / High Jul 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 0.8433 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 0.8411 @ 08:24 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 0.8383 Low Jul 17 
• SUP 2: 0.8345 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8322 2.618 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing

EURGBP faded moderately yesterday. A bear cycle remains intact and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness resulted in a print below key support at 0.8397, the Jun 14 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the medium-term downtrend and pave the way for an extension towards 0.8366, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8433, the 20-day EMA.    

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends 

• RES 4: 162.21 1.764 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing    
• RES 3: 161.95 High Jul 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 159.16/160.26 20-day EMA / Low Jul 8 
• RES 1: 157.86 High Jul 19
• PRICE: 154.78 @ 08:28 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 154.37 Low Jul 18
• SUP 2: 153.66 38.2% retracement of the Dec 28 ‘23 - Jul 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 152.78 Low May 6, 2024
• SUP 4: 152.44 3.0% 10-dma envelope

USDJPY trades lower again Wednesday, re-orienting focus to recent lows. This confirms an extension of the bear cycle that started Jul 3. With the trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low last year having broken, the potential for a further reversal opens 153.66 and the May 6 low at 152.78 below. Initial firm resistance is seen at 159.16, the 20-day EMA.    

EURJPY TECHS: 170 Snaps, Opening Potential for Further Weakness

• RES 4: 176.03 1.618 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 173.92 61.8% retracement of the Jul 11 - 12 sell-off  
• RES 1: 172.92 High Jul 16 
• PRICE: 167.72 @ 08:33 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 167.53 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 167.44 Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 166.84 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 165.96 3.0% 10-dma envelope

The sharp sell-off in EURJPY persists, with the snap of the 170.00 mark opening the next leg lower in the cross. The clear break of this line highlights potential for a stronger reversal. This initially targets 166.84 and 165.96 - both vol-band based support. Key resistance is 175.43, the Jun 11 high. Initial resistance is at 172.92, the Jul 16 high.       

AUDUSD TECHS: Testing 200-dma

• RES 4: 0.6895 High Jul 13 / 14 2023    
• RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance                
• RES 2: 0.6839 High Jan 02
• RES 1: 0.6799 High Jul 11 
• PRICE: 0.6600 @ 08:38 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 0.6587 200-dma
• SUP 2: 0.6584 Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6558 Low May 8

AUDUSD prices are again on the backfoot, adding to losses posted off the July 11 high. Spot has now closed below both the 50-day EMA and the 50-dma. This is a bearish development and exposes prices to a further correction toward 0.6576, the key support. The bull trigger is at 0.6799, the Jul 11 high. A break would resume the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 0.6839 next, the Jan 2 high. 

USDCAD TECHS: Rally Persists, Not Yet Overbought

• RES 4: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 2: 1.3845 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.3800 High Jul 24
• PRICE: 1.3795 @ 08:40 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 1.3590/89 Low May 16 and a key support / Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4 

The impulsive rally in USD/CAD persists, with the pair showing above 1.3792 resistance this week. Further gains target the 1.0% 10-dma envelope at 1.3845 initially ahead of the more important level of 1.3846 - the Apr 16 high and bull trigger. The pair is yet to flash overbought on the 14-day RSI, meaning momentum could build further before any consolidative phase. A return lower looks to 1.3590 as first major support. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Strong Daily Close, Exposes Resistance

• RES 4: 133.42 1.764 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing            
• RES 3: 133.21 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 132.80 High Jun 25
• RES 1: 132.66 High Jul 17                     
• PRICE: 132.29 @ 07:23 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 131.74 50-day EMA           
• SUP 2: 130.95/23 Low Jul 10 / 3 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 129.52 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger 

Bund futures saw support across Tuesday trade, rallying well off the 50-day EMA to secure a strong close. That’s filtered through into Wednesday morning, with resistance at 132.66 - the Jul 17 high in focus. Last week, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 3 bear leg, was pierced, opening 133.21, the Jun 14 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support at 130.23, the Jul 3 low. First support is 131.74, the 50-day EMA.   

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Remains Intact                                          

• RES 4: 117.380 2.00 projection of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing     
• RES 2: 117.160 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger    
• RES 3: 116.920 High Jun 24   
• RES 1: 116.890 High Jul 18               
• PRICE: 116.700 @ 07:27 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 116.440 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 115.980 Low Jul 10 / 11   
• SUP 3: 115.530 Low Jul and the key short-term support
• SUP 4: 115.180 Low Jun 10 

Bobl futures are off highs, but remain in a bull cycle over the medium-term after the contract traded higher last week. Price has pierced 116.775, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 5 bear leg. A clear break of it would expose 117.160, the Jun 14 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on 115.530, the Jul 5 low and a key support. Initial support to watch lies at 116.440, the 20-day EMA - already being tested early Tuesday.             

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Short-Term Bullish Theme                              

• RES 4: 106.009 2.382 projection of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing   
• RES 3: 105.975 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger  
• RES 2: 105.837 61.8% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 5 bear leg      
• RES 1: 105.835 High Jul 18  
• PRICE: 105.770 @ 07:29 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 105.668 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 105.495/390 Low Jul 11 / 5 
• SUP 3: 105.314 76.4% retracement of the May 24 Jun 14 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 105.175 Low Jun 7  

Schatz futures traded higher last week, reinforcing a short-term bullish theme - which still pervades despite the corrective slip lower on Monday. Sights are on 105.837, a Fibonacci retracement point. A clear break of 105.837 would strengthen a bullish theme and expose 105.975, the Jun 14 high and key resistance. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on key short-term support at 105.390, the Jul 5 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish theme.                      

GILT TECHS: (U4) Reverses Recent Gains                                        

• RES 4: 100.00 Psychological round number  
• RES 3: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 99.23 High Jun 21 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 98.93 High Jul 16 
• PRICE: 97.92 @ Close Jul 23 
• SUP 1: 97.63/96.57 Low Jul 11 / 1 and a key support      
• SUP 2: 96.25 76.4% retracement of the May 29 - Jun 21 bull run      
• SUP 3: 96.12 Low Jun 10 
• SUP 4: 95.33 Low May 29 and a key support   

Gilt futures traded higher into the Tuesday close, but were unable to stage a rally toward the better levels of last week, keeping price below former resistance at 98.24, the Jun 28 high. This may suggest further slippage toward 97.63 on any renewed weakness. A further reversal would refocus attention on 96.57, the Jul 1 low and a key short-term support. Any bounce this week would need to top key short-term resistance at 99.23, the Jun 21 high. 

BTP TECHS: (U4) Fades Off Highs, But Still Bullish

• RES 4:120.20 2.00 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 3: 119.55 1.764 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing 
• RES 2: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 118.73 High May 16 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: 117.92 @ 07:32 Jul 24
• SUP 1: 117.36 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 116.07 Low Jul 8 
• SUP 3: 114.72 Low Jul 2 
• SUP 4: 114.35 Low Jun 11 and key support 

BTP futures faded into the Friday close and remained weak Monday. This opens a decent gap with recent highs. The medium-term trend, however, remains positive after the impulsive rally resulted in a print above 118.58, the May 16 high. A continuation of the bull cycle would open the 119.00 handle next ahead of 119.55, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 117.36, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective and this would allow an overbought condition to unwind.                         

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Recovers Off Bear Trigger    

• RES 4: 5200.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 5151.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger      
• RES 2: 5132.00 High Jun 6
• RES 1: 4994.76/5087.00 50-day EMA / High Jul 12   
• PRICE: 4911.00 @ 07:35 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: 4860.00 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4848.00 Low Jul 19 
• SUP 3: 4846.00 Low Apr 19 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 4800.00 Round number support

A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact, despite the pullback in prices into the Friday close. Prices recovered well across the Monday and Tuesday sessions, however the move lower last week undermines the bullish theme somewhat, with price having tested the bear trigger at 4860.00, the Jun 14 low. Clearance of this level would expose 4846.00, the Apr 19 low and a key reversal point. For bulls, a move higher and a break of 5087.00, the Jul 12 high, would again highlight a bullish theme.          

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Stable Above Lows

• RES 4: 5786.66 3.50 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 5764.00 3.50 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: 5741 34 3.382 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5721.25 High Jul 16      
• PRICE: 5561.00 @ 07:40 BST Jul 23
• SUP 1: 5542.00 Low Jul 19
• SUP 2: 5501.50 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5398.75 Low Jun 11 
• SUP 4: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support

Prices returned lower early Wednesday on the back of poor after-market earnings, pressuring the Jul 19 lows at 5542.00. Any renewed weakness through here would challenge the 50-day EMA and key support of 5501.50. The broader trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the slip lower into last week’s close appears to be a correction. MA studies are in a clear bull-mode set-up, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5741.34, a Fibonacci projection. 

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U4) 50-Day EMA, Fib Support Cracks

• RES 4: $91.99 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing 
• RES 3: $90.23 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $89.32 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $87.95 - High Jul 5    
• PRICE: $81.40 @ 07:44 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: $80.51 - Low Jul 23
• SUP 2: $79.32 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 4 - Jul 5 bull leg  
• SUP 3: $76.66 - Low Jun 4 and a key support
• SUP 4: $75.31 - Low Feb 5 

The trend condition in Brent futures remains bullish, however, a corrective cycle is in play and the contract has pierced both the the 50-day EMA and the 50% retracement for the Jun 4 - Jul 5 bull leg to print a pullback low at $81.51. Should prices stabilise ahead, a continuation higher would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at $87.95, the Jul 5 high. $79.32 is next key support. 

WTI TECHS: (U4) Outlook Deteriorates Further

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $87.43 - 1.00 proj of the Dec 13 ‘23 - Apr 12 - Jun 4 swing 
• RES 2: $84.36 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $83.58 - High Jul 5   
• PRICE: $77.35 @ 07:47 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: $76.52 - 4.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: $76.40 - Low Jul 22
• SUP 3: $72.23 - Low Jun 4 and a key support 
• SUP 4: $70.73 - Low Feb 5 

Weakness through Tuesday and the broad commodity sell-off resulted in a new low for WTI futures at $76.40, breaking the Monday low in the process. Vol band based support undercuts from here at 76.52, ahead of key support at the Jun 4 low of 72.23. Initial key resistance to watch is $83.58, the Jul 5 high, and a break and close above this level is needed ahead of any test on the 84.36 bull trigger.  

GOLD TECHS: Off Highs, But M/T Outlook Still Bullish

• RES 4: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing   
• RES 3: $2528.4 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2500.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $2483.8 - High Jul 17                 
• PRICE: $2417.1 @ 07:52 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: $2392.2 - 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: $2358.3/2286.9 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 7
• SUP 3: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support 
• SUP 4: $2228.6 - Low Apr 1

Prices faded across the second half of last week, resulting in new pullback lows of $2383.99 on Monday. Nonetheless, the broader gains last week reinforce current conditions, and keep the M/T trend pointed higher. The yellow metal has breached key resistance and the bull trigger at $2450.1, the May 20 high. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and opens the $2500.00 handle next. Moving average studies are in a clear bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Initial support is at $2392.2, the 20-day EMA.     

SILVER TECHS: Short-Term Structure Deteriorates

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing        
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger               
• PRICE: $29.300 @ 07:57 BST Jul 24
• SUP 1: $28.668 - Low Jul 23               
• SUP 2: $27.971 - Low May 13  
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support  
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Silver slipped through support early Friday, to tilt the S/T outlook bearish on the move through the 50-day EMA. Key support and the bear trigger lies just below at $28.573, the Jun 26 low. Any recovery and return higher would resume the bull cycle after the recent break of $30.853, the Jun 21 high. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of the key resistance and bull trigger at $32.518, the May 20 high.