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Free AccessHoliday Season Retail Sales Suggest Consumer Not Yet Subdued
US retail sales saw surprising strength in November, with the headline reading up 0.3% M/M (-0.1% survey, -0.2% prior revised).
- The core figures, while offset by downward revisions, surprised to the upside as well: ex-auto +0.2% M/M (-0.1% survey, 0.0% prior revised), ex-auto/gas +0.6% M/M (+0.2% survey, +0.1% prior unrevised), and the GDP input control group +0.4% M/M (+0.2% survey, albeit 0.0% prior revised down from 0.2%).
- November saw a rebound in motor vehicle/parts sales (to +0.5% from -1.1%), furniture (+0.9% from -2.2%), clothing (+0.6% from -0.1%), offset by greater weakness in misc store retailers (-2.0% from +0.7%) electronics/appliances (-1.1% from +1.1%) and building materials (-0.4% from -0.1%). Gasoline prices spurred a bigger contraction in sales (-2.9% from -1.2%).
- Standout positive categories included food services/drinking places (+1.6% from +0.6% prior), and nonstore retailers (+1.0% from -0.3% prior),
- Health and personal care, food and beverage shops saw slower but positive growth vs October.
- Overall, after a soft reading in October, this report suggested decent strength in private consumption going into year-end. The downward revision in October control group sales may take the sheen off the report though, as it relates to Q4 GDP calculations.
- From a longer-term perspective, the deceleration in inflation combined with steady/improving nominal retail sales saw the strongest Y/Y growth - and first positive Y/Y reading - in "real" retail sales since January.
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