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Home Building Disappoints, Correction Likely Has Further To Go
Building approvals for January was another piece of disappointing data as the RBA’s monetary tightening bites. It plunged by 27.6% m/m, more than expected, after a downwardly revised 15.3% m/m rise. The less volatile private houses component fell 13.8% m/m after -2.1%m/m, the fifth consecutive drop, and with rates expected to rise another 25bp at the March 7 RBA meeting and probably beyond the adjustment in home building likely has further to go.
- Apart from the Covid years, private house approvals fell at their sharpest rate since the GST was introduced in 2000 and to their lowest level since June 2012. The pullback was across states. They now stand down 12% y/y (Dec -12.3% y/y) and 3-month momentum is extremely negative.
- The headline number is driven by the very large and volatile swings in multi-dwelling approvals. They fell 40.8% m/m in January after rising 41.9% the previous month. They are now down 0.3% y/y.
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
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