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Free AccessBrandenburg / Berlin Oct CPI Consistent With National Disinflation
- The 4.6% Y/Y reported by Brandenburg is a deceleration from 5.6% in Sept, led by energy prices (-3.2% Y/Y). CPI was 5.2% ex-food and energy (5.6% Y/Y prior). Berlin came in at 4.2%, vs 5.1% prior (3.8% ex-food and energy vs 4.1% prior).
- Services were negative M/M in both, including in categories in closely eyed areas in the national print such as package holidays and transport, though positive Y/Y.
- The M/M figures were -0.2% headline/ 0.0% core for Berlin, 0.0% headline / +0.1% for Brandenburg.
- Berlin makes up around 6% of the national German weighting, with Brandenburg a further 3%. The figures are in line with expectations for the national print to soften vs September. German headline CPI consensus is 4.0% Y/Y vs last month's 4.5% with core 4.6%.
- We would caution about reading too much into this data - Berlin and Brandenburg both heavily overstated the case on national headline in September, with Berlin undershooting on core and Brandenburg overshooting. Other similar sized states were much closer to the mark (Rhineland-Palatinate, Lower Saxony).
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