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MNI CBR Review - December 2021: Geopolitical Risks Key to Final +50bp Hike

Russia Central Bank
Russia Central Bank

Executive Summary

  • The CBR raised its Key Rate +100bps to 8.50% (in line with consensus), signalling more potential hikes in the pipeline for 2022 – although analysts are split over this being the terminal rate.
  • Guidance remained hawkish but softened slightly as Nabiullina guided towards “a” possible future hike, rather than “hikes” (Plural). Phraseology on proinflationary labour market dynamics was notably more hawkish, however.
  • Scope for another +50bp hike remains in February, but will largely depend on the evolution of CPI in to Feb 2022 and geopolitical risks that could affect passthrough via the FX channel.

Full Review Here:

CBR Review 20.12.21.pdf

MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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