MNI NBP Preview - May 2024: Another Hawkish Hold
The NBP is universally expected to deliver another hawkish hold, with rates widely seen on hold in the coming months.
Executive Summary:
- The NBP is expected to keep interest rates unchanged again.
- Inflation eased into the tolerance band but has now started to rebound.
- Governor Glapiński will likely warn of familiar risks and uncertainties.
Full preview including a summary of sell-side views here:
MNI NBP Preview - May 2024.pdf
The upcoming monetary policy meeting is set to be a placeholder, with the National Bank of Poland (NBP) widely expected to sit on its hands at least until the publication of the next inflation projection in July. Although CPI growth remains within the central bank’s tolerance band, it is past its local trough and will accelerate into 2H2024. Meanwhile, familiar risks and uncertainties repeatedly flagged by various MPC members continue to linger, limiting room for any imminent interest-rate adjustments. That being said, better-than-expected inflation outturns for 1Q2024 and a more gradual phase-out of energy subsidies tentatively proposed by the government leave the prospect of a cut by the year-end on the table.