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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI SARB Review - November 2022: Hike Pace to Slow in New Year
Executive Summary:
- SARB raised rates by 75bps, alongside expectations
- Vote split erred to the dovish side, 3-2 for 75bps vs 50bps, contrasting with Sept's 3-2 for 75bps vs 100bps
- Presser suggested pace of future hikes will slow as rates climb north of neutral
Full review including summary of sell-side views here: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNISA...
The Bank tightened policy further in November, putting the benchmark rate at 7.00% and meeting their assumption of the neutral rate. The decision means the prime mortgage rate is now over 10% for the first time since 2019. This blunt and direct psychological level should filter swiftly into consumer spending patterns ahead of year-end, and could slow the pace of hikes going forward.
The vote split among the board was consistent with the argument that rate hikes will slow going forward, with 3 members opting for a 75bps move, while 2 voted for a 50bps increase. This contrasts with the September decision, at which the board were again split 3-2, but 2 members voted for 100bps. Should this pattern extend, the next decision in Q1 2023 could slow to a 50bps move, or even 25bps.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.