-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Chart Packs -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI: Tight BOC Policy No Longer Needed - CD Howe
Tight Bank of Canada policy is no longer needed with the economy weakening enough to return inflation to target, according to a new set of leading indicators from the C.D. Howe Institute developed by former central bank researchers.
"In aggregate, these conclusions suggest the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle should be coming to an end and are possibly indicative of the need to cut," according to a paper by Jeremy Kronick, Steve Ambler and Mawakina Bafale. Before joining C.D. Howe Kronick spent some time working at the BOC while Ambler is a former special adviser to the central bank. Leading indicators are "flashing warning signs," they write in a paper set to be published Thursday.
Governor Tiff Macklem held the key rate at the highest level since 2001 at 5% on March 6 and told MNI in an interview he could move quickly if needed but needs to see sustained progress on inflation. (See: MNI INTERVIEW: BOC's Macklem Says Can Move Rapidly If Needed) The latest CPI report on Tuesday showed a second month with prices advancing less than economists predicted, with the headline rate holding below 3% for the first time since pandemic shutdowns eased.
"With economic activity typically leading inflation, inflation seems set to continue back to the 2% target," Bafale, a research officer at the Institute, wrote in the paper.
The results are based on a new leading economic indicator with data that will be free to the public and updated monthly. The leading indicator is now "commensurate with previous declines during the 2001 dot-com crash and the 2008 Great Financial Crisis," the authors wrote.
“The current level of economic activity is where it was in February 2021, the last time inflation was at or below the 2% target,” Ambler said.
The timing of a potential rate cut is less clear, with another new indicator based on Taylor rules showing the Bank's policy rate in an appropriate range.
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.